The refugee crisis in Europe has claimedits biggest political casualty with the resignation yesterday of WernerFaymann, Austria’s chancellor, in the face of surging support for the country’s far-rightFreedom party.奥地利总理维尔#8226;法伊Werner Faymann，见上图)昨日宣布辞职，成为欧洲难民危机造成的迄今最大政治牺牲品。目前奥地利极右翼的自由Freedom party)持率大幅飙升。Mr Faymann, who led Austria for more thanseven years, quit after losing the backing of his centre-left Social Democraticparty. It came two weeks after his party’s candidate came fourth in first-roundelections for the largely ceremonial job of president. Freedom party candidateNorbert Hofer led with more than 35 per cent of the vote.担任奥地利总理年之久的法伊曼，在失去所在中左翼社会民主Social Democratic party)的持后宣布辞职。两周前，该党总统候选人在总统大选首轮投票中仅位列第四——尽管奥地利总统在很大程度上是一项礼仪工作。自由党候选人诺贝#8226;霍弗(Norbert Hofer)以5%的票数处于领先。The party’s anti-immigrationmessage has resonated with voters alarmed by the influx into Europe of morethan 1m refugees and migrants from Syria and other Middle Eastern and Africancountries over the past year.自由党的反移民倾向引发了选民们的共鸣，选民们对过去一年从叙利亚等中东国家及非洲涌入欧洲的00万难民和移民感到恐慌。The fear in other European capitals is thatthe Freedom party’s success could presage similar upsets elsewhere. In France,National Front leader Marine Le Pen is predicted to outpoll Socialist PresidentFran#231;ois Hollande in next year’s presidential race. In recent German regionalelections, the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party made asignificant breakthrough.欧洲各国政府担忧的是，自由党的成功可能预示着各国也出现类似的“变天”。在法国明年举行的总统大选中，国民阵National Front)领导人马#8226;勒庞(Marine Le Pen)预计将得到超过社会党总统弗朗索瓦#8226;奥朗Fran#231;ois Hollande)的选票。在德国近期举行的地方选举中，反移民的德国新选择Alternative für Deutschland)取得了重大突破。Mr Faymann’s departurehighlighted plunging public support for the Social Democrats and the country’s othermainstream party, the centre-right People’s party. The twohave governed the country since the second world war.法伊曼的去职凸显了社民党及该国另一主流政党——中右翼的人民党(People’s party)持率大幅下滑。自二次结束以来，奥地利政权一直由这两党主导。Mr Faymann was booed during a recent ViennaMay Day rally, traditionally used as a show of strength by Europe’s tradeunions and centre-left parties.在最近举行的维也纳“五一劳动节”集会上，法伊曼遭到了群众的嘘声，而传统上欧洲工会及中左政党在这一天展示实力。“There was public uproar in the [Social Democratic] party against asitting chancellor. “This is really new and it tells you they are in disarray,”said ThomasHofer, a political analyst in Vienna.维也纳政治分析人士托马斯#8226;霍弗(Thomas Hofer)表示：“社民党内部出现了反对现任总理的公开呼声。这真的是前所未有的事情，表明他们陷入了混乱。”Mr Faymann’s successor will bechosen in consultation with the People’s party, which isgoverning in a “grand coalition”with the Social Democrats —unless the People’s partydecides to break up the coalition and trigger early national elections.奥地利当前的“大联合政府”由社民党与人民党联合组成，法伊曼的继任者将由两党磋商决定——除非人民党决定打破联合政府，触发全国大选提前举行。Although it is among Europe’s most affluentand stable countries, Austria’s high taxes and public spending are widelycriticised by business leaders and unemployment is rising. The chancellor’sSocial Democratic allies “did not perceive him as a winner any more said MrHofer.虽然奥地利是欧洲最富裕、最稳定的国家之一，但该国的高税收及高公共开遭到了商界领袖的广泛批评，而且失业率也在上升。霍弗表示，法伊曼的党内盟友“不再将他视为一名赢家”。Initially Mr Faymann sided with GermanChancellor Angela Merkel in supporting the refugees seeking asylum in Europe.起初，法伊曼站在德国总理安格#8226;默克Angela Merkel)一边，对到欧洲寻求庇护的难民表示持。Most refugees passed through Austria and onto Germany or other destinations, such as Sweden. Nevertheless, the strain onAustria’s infrastructure and voters’fears that thegovernment had lost control over the inflows forced a policy reversal.大多数难民经由奥地利去往德国或其他目的地，如瑞典。然而，奥地利基础设施承受的压力以及选民担忧政府已失去对难民涌入的控制，迫使奥地利政府不得不转变政策。Earlier this year Austria secured agreementwith neighbouring countries on blocking immigration flows along the so-called “Balkan route今年早些时候，奥地利与周边国家签署协议，旨在阻止移民沿着所谓的“巴尔干路线Balkan route)涌入欧洲。来 /201605/442599
Rising protectionist sentiment in the West and a dramatic decline in global trade since 2011 have led many to speculate that Asia’s era of export-led growth will end soon. This speculation is overdone. While the slowdown in trade does demand responses, Asia is well positioned to be a bulwark against protectionism. In fact, it can lead global trade in the years to come.西方的保护主义情绪不断上升，加上011年以来全球贸易大幅下降，导致许多人猜测，亚洲出口导向型增长的时代将很快结束。这个猜测言过其实了。虽然贸易放缓需要作出回应，但亚洲处于有利地位，能够成为抵制保护主义的堡垒。事实上，亚洲可以在未来多年引领全球贸易。But, getting the responses right will require a clear understanding of the causes. Policy makers need to ask first what explains the export slowdown, and what this means for Asian economies. The story starts with the great recession in 2008, which left advanced countries stuck in low growth, low demand environments that have weighed heavily on Asia’s export-dominated economies.但是，做出正确回应将需要清楚地了解贸易放缓的原因。政策制定者需要首先问一下，什么因素解释了出口增长放缓，以及这对亚洲经济体意味着什么？事情始于2008年的大衰退，那场衰退导致发达国家陷入低增长、低需求的环境，严重拖累了亚洲的出口主导型经济体。In recent years, the problems of developed world economies have become entangled with China’s structural transformation, which has meant slower growth for Asia’s largest economy. Two trends accompanying China’s structural transformation have implications for Asian trade. One is its shift away from an export and investment-driven growth model toward domestic consumption and services. The other is China’s moving up the global value chain as wages rise.近年来，发达经济体的问题又与中国的结构转型结合在一起，后者已导致亚洲最大经济体增长放缓。伴随中国结构转型的两个趋势对亚洲贸易产生影响。一是中国增长模式从出口和投资驱动转向国内消费和务驱动。另一个是随着工资的上涨，中国正向全球价值链(GVC)的高端攀升。These trends have reduced demand for imports from the rest of Asia. Fueled by expanding middle class consumers, China continues to import consumables from across Asia. But, imports of capital goods and raw materials have declined. Accordingly, the annual average growth of China’s total imports from developing Asia fell from 18.2 per cent in 2001-2010 to 4.7 per cent in 2011-2015.这些趋势减少了中国对亚洲其他国家的进口需求。在日益扩大的中产阶层消费者的推动下，中国继续从亚洲各经济体进口消费品。但是，资本货物和原材料的进口减少了。相应地，中国从亚洲发展中国家的总进口的年均增长率由2001010年的18.2%，降到了2011015年的4.7%。They have also reduced trade in parts and components, which contain higher value addition than simply assembling products. The ratio of China’s intermediate goods imports to manufactured exports fell from 63 per cent to about 38 per cent between 2000 and 2015.这些趋势还减少了零部件的贸易，零部件相比简单装配产品具有更高的附加值。从2000015年，中国中间产品进口与制成品出口之比3%降至8%。The good news is that these factors are either temporary, such as weak import demand from advanced markets, or can be overcome through smart policymaking that takes advantage of the region’s strengths.好消息是，这些因素要么是暂时的——比如说发达市场的进口需求疲软——要么是可以通过发挥地区优势的明智政策来克的。Here are three ways Asia can take the lead in global trade.亚洲可以通过三条途径引领全球贸易。First, China’s economic rebalancing and moving up global value chains (GVCs) is opening up new trading opportunities for China itself. China’s production data confirm that the country is following the model of higher value added and building innovation capability seen first in Japan and subsequently in South Korea.首先，中国的经济再平衡和在全球价值链中向高端攀升，为中国本身开启了新的贸易机会。中国的生产数据实，该国正在追随首先在日本、后来在韩国见到的那种提高附加值和打造创新能力的模式。This implies the development of more technologically sophisticated regional value chains and related services in East Asia that can propel a new phase of regional and global trade growth. The sp of robotics, advances in miniaturisation, developments in internet connectivity, process-centered research and development, and various organisational innovations are increasingly likely to feature in GVCs in this new phase of trade growth.这暗示着，在东亚发展技术含量更高的区域价值链及相关务，可以推动区域乃至全球贸易进入一个新的增长阶段。在这个新的贸易增长阶段，机器人的普及、微型化的进展、互联网连接的发展、以流程为中心的研发以及各种组织创新，越来越有可能在全球价值链上发挥重要作用。Second, many developing economies are well positioned to benefit from China’s rebalancing. Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) face the prospect of replacing China in labor-intensive segments of GVCs, from clothing to consumer electronics. These Asian economies are increasingly open to export-oriented foreign direct investment and offer relatively low wages with reasonably good labor productivity.其次，许多发展中经济体处于受益于中国再平衡的有利地位。从装到消费电子产品，孟加拉国、印度、越南以及东ASEAN)其他成员国面临着在全球价值链的劳动密集型环节取代中国的前景。这些亚洲经济体对出口导向的外商直接投资(FDI)越来越开放，并提供相对低廉的工资和相当高的劳动生产率。Third, trade in services offers a new opportunity for many middle income countries in the region. Services constitute the largest sector in most economies in developing Asia, but they are rarely traded because of trade restrictions, skills gaps, and problems with internet connectivity.第三，务贸易为亚洲许多中等收入国家提供了新机遇。务业是亚洲多数发展中经济体内最大的行业，但由于贸易限制、技能差距和互联网连接问题，目前务贸易额很低。Digital trade, professional and financial services, and GVC-related services are areas with potential for trade growth. Both China and India are likely to further expand their roles as exporters and importers of services. Asean and South Asian economies have opportunities to further develop tourism, including from markets in other regional economies, and other commercial services exports.数字化贸易、专业及金融务以及全球价值链相关务是具有贸易增长潜力的领域。中国和印度都有可能进一步扩大它们作为务出口国和进口国的角色。东盟和南亚经济体有机会进一步发展旅游业——包括针对其他区域经济体的市场——和其他商务务的出口。To capitalise on these opportunities, it is important that Asian countries continue to implement structural reform to upgrade skills, enhance finance for small and medium-sized enterprises, invest in seaports and other trade-related and digital infrastructure and reduce behind-the-border barriers such as cumbersome local government regulations and labor laws.为了利用这些机会，重要的是亚洲国家要继续实施结构改革以升级技能，为中小企业拓宽融资渠道，投资海港和其他与贸易有关的、数字化的基础设施，并减少境内障碍，比如繁琐的地方政府法规和劳动法律。Policy makers should resist protectionist pressures. Instead, they should liberalize goods and services trade by reducing import tariffs where possible and instituting better surveillance of non-tariff measures. The World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, which 19 economies in developing Asia have ratified to date, promises to reduce the region’s trade costs.政策制定者应该抵制保护主义压力。相反，他们应该通过尽可能降低进口关税并加强监督非关税措施，实现商品和务贸易的自由化。世界贸易组WTO)的《贸易便利化协定Trade Facilitation Agreement)——迄今已9个亚洲发展中经济体批准了该协定——有望降低亚洲的贸易成本。Large trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership can help generate market access for services and sp good regulatory practices.Asia has benefited greatly from trade in recent years. It should continue to implement the kinds of policies that will make it the leader in global trade.《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)等大型贸易协定，可以帮助达成务的市场准入和推广优良的监管做法。近年亚洲从贸易受益匪浅。亚洲应继续实施各项明智政策，使其成为全球贸易的引领者。Mr. Wignaraja is an adviser in ADB’s Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department. Mr. Zhuang is ADB’s Deputy Chief Economist.加内维格纳拉杰是亚开ADB)经济研究与地区合作部顾问，庄巨忠是亚开行副首席经济学家 /201701/488896
